What solar payback actually looks like on a Tampa home
The inputs that move payback in Tampa, and the assumptions to challenge in any proposal.
Payback is a model, not a fact. Five inputs move it, and every proposal makes an assumption about each.
1. Your actual usage
Twelve months of TECO kWh, not an estimate from square footage. A pool pump, a home office, or an EV changes the answer completely.
2. Rate trajectory
Every proposal assumes an annual utility escalation. A model assuming 5% annual increases will show a much prettier payback than one assuming 2.5%. Ask what number was used and re-run it lower. If the deal only works at an aggressive escalation, it's a fragile deal.
3. Shading and orientation
South planes beat west; west beats east; a shaded south plane can lose to a clean west one. Demand a shade model, not a rule of thumb.
4. Total installed cost
All-in, after every fee. Cost per watt is how you compare across bidders.
5. Financing structure
Cash, lease and prepaid lease produce entirely different cash-flow curves from the same hardware. Compare the structure you'd actually use.
What we tell people
Bring your last twelve TECO statements. If the numbers don't work on conservative assumptions, we'll say so — sometimes the right answer in Tampa is attic and duct work first, solar in two years. Start with the questionnaire and we'll model it honestly.
Sources
Talk it through with a Tampa crew
Origin is a Tampa-based solar, roofing, battery and electrical contractor (Florida license EC13012465). Start with the quick questionnaire, see the Tampa solar page, or book a consultation — in person, virtual, or a call back.
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